I got to this ten minute video lecture by Ivor Cummins via a Facebook posting by David Ramsay Steele. Steele had earlier written a piece which I half noticed a few days ago, as a result of someone mentioning it on my Twitter feed and me happening to be paying attention to Twitter at that moment. I have just now got back to that piece by Steele.
Steele argues that respiratory epidemics like Covid-19 cannot be stopped, and probably not even slowed much in their spread. The point is to get herd immunity (which Cummins calls, rather poetically, “community immunity”), and meanwhile to protect the vulnerable as best we can. (I seem to recall this being argued right at the beginning of all this, in Britain.)
Steele also links to and agrees with this blog posting by J.B.Handley.
Me going into further details is pointless. Follow the above links if you are interested.
I believe that the way to find out the truth about anything is to have a huge argument about it. Roughly speaking, the truth consists of a “model” which most closely describes reality. Eventually, the most accurate model wins. Not all “models” are wrong. But most models are wrong.
If I had to place a bet on which Covid-19 model will win, that is to say: be acknowledged more widely than any other model as the truth of things, then I would now bet on this Cummins/Handley/Steele model.
There is just one detail of this argument I will pick out. Trump and Trumpists have been saying that if the Chinese government had told everyone faster then the worldwide spread of Covid-19 could, perhaps or even definitely, have been confined to China. This is, says Steele, “hogwash”. I mention this merely because I have been a Trumpist about this, but will now have to find some other way to denounce the Chinese government for its handling of matters Covidic. Shouldn’t be hard.
LATER: Following.
I have not really made my mind up about this, other than to note that since I am happy enough in what isolation I have for now, it is not an uncomfortable precaution for me to continue to take, for now. Comparisons of Sweden, Norway and Denmark may be helpful on the question of slowing spread.
The discussion about herd immunity you remember was rather mis-reported at the time. I think the best summary is here.
The simplest model is just that left unchecked, 100% of people get it and 1% die (and x% are left with long term problems from it). I suspect that far fewer people than 100% of people are at all susceptible, but I am just guessing. Also improved treatment helps. But other than that I suspect we are a long way from herd immunity without a vaccine. I am fairly confident vaccines are coming soon and will work and it will be moot.